Russia didn’t become the largest country in the World (landmass) by being friendly wid their neighbors. Russia has a long history of invading ‘n reinvading their neighbors, and apparently most of Europe has finally had ‘Enough‘. Ukraine was certainly tired of Russia’s invasions, and has now made it clear to Russia that they will never surrender to Russia again. This clear:
January 31, 2022
Colonel-General Ivashov (RUS Retd), chairman of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, is the author of – ‘On the Eve of War?’ – Appeal of the All-Russian Officers Assembly to the President and Citizens of the Russian Federation – ‘n here are some snippets from it:
SNIP .. But this threat is internal and stems from the model of government, the quality of the leadership and the state of society. And the causes of this threat are also internal: The model of government is not viable, leaders and administrators are totally incompetent and unprofessional, while society is passive and disorganized. No country can live long in such a state.
As far as external threats are concerned, they definitely exist. But in our expert opinion, they are not critical at the moment, and do not pose a direct threat to the existence of Russian statehood and its vital interests. Strategic stability has been preserved overall, nuclear weapons are under reliable control and groups of NATO forces are not amassing or displaying any threatening activity. Therefore, the explosive situation surrounding Ukraine is primarily artificial and self-serving for some internal forces, including in Russia.
SNIP .. Ukraine became an independent state and a UN member. Thus, in accordance with Art. 51 of the UN Charter, it gained the right to individual and collective defense.
SNIP .. Naturally, in order for Ukraine to remain a friendly neighbor for Russia, Russia would have had to demonstrate the attractiveness of its state model and system of government. But Russia never became a friendly neighbor; its model of development and foreign policy mechanism for international cooperation repelled almost all its neighbors and beyond. Russia’s appropriation of the Crimea and Sevastopol, and their nonrecognition as Russian by the international community (meaning that the majority of countries in the world still believe they belong to Ukraine) are convincing proof of the failure of Russian foreign policy and the unattractiveness of its domestic policy. Attempts to use ultimatums and the threat of force to make [others] “fall in love with” Russia and its leaders are pointless and extremely dangerous.
We believe that Russia’s leadership understands that it is not capable of leading the country out of a systemic crisis, and that this could lead to a popular uprising and a change in power in the country supported by the oligarchy, corrupt officials, a tamed media and the siloviki [law-enforcement and security officials]. Therefore, it decided to promote a policy regarding the final destruction of Russian statehood and the eradication of the country’s native population. And war is the very means that will solve this task so that Russia can retain for a short time its antinational leadership and hold on to the wealth stolen from the people. We cannot think of any other explanation.
There were no external threats to Russia. Ukraine was not a “Nazi” state. Putin ‘n his cronies just wanted to plunder Ukraine, like they had been doing to Russia. These same tyrants could not stand seeing the Russian people enjoying even a slight taste of freedom, and have been dragging Russia back into authoritarian rule for years. Russians seem unable to break free from Czars or Communist authoritarian rulers for very long.
Colonel-General Ivashov warned Putin that invading Ukraine would turn Russia into a “pariah of the world community.” He warned that the invasion would leave Russia against the “united forces of the West.” All those warnings were made before Putin ignored them ‘n reinvaded Ukraine, foolishly believing that Ukraine would ‘rollover‘ and that the West would cringe in fear.
February 28, 2022
Just four days after Putin reinvaded, this article came out – Putin has fatally underestimated Ukrainians:
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a terrible miscalculation.
When he launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Putin apparently thought it would be possible to wage war specifically against the country’s political leadership. He appears to have fallen into the trap of believing his own propaganda and assuming today’s Ukraine was just like modern Russia, with its largely passive and apolitical population. Based on his own experience of dictatorial government, Putin thought it would be a relatively simple task to intimidate or remove a few key Ukrainian leaders and take over the country.
Instead, he now finds himself at war with an entire nation of 40 million.
Putin has made every single Ukrainian his enemy. During the first five days of the conflict, he has learned the painful lesson that Ukrainian society is far more capable of mobilizing our collective strength than any citizen of an authoritarian regime could possibly comprehend.
Russia’s “largely passive and apolitical population” is now going to be spending decades, paying for the damages done to Ukraine, and for the aid provided by countries who were helping Ukraine materially. They’ll either pay or Russia will remain a “pariah of the world community.”
Putin will be gone by then, but the Russian people will still be around…unless, they allow Putin to launch Nukes. This War is going to show the entire World that ‘Nuclear Threats‘ are not going to work, i.e., either use them or shut up. Iran & North Korea should pay close attention…
April 25, 2022
Even Paris has noticed Russia’s “shortcomings” – Ukraine war exposes Russia military shortcomings: analysts
Two months into the war in Ukraine, military experts say they have been shocked about how ill-prepared Russia has been in its invasion of its pro-Western neighbour.
Despite an initial offensive on multiple fronts, Moscow has failed to gain the upper hand in the air, sent in columns of tanks without cover or coordination and has vastly underestimated the strength of Ukraine’s resistance, experts say.
SNIP .. But Moscow has failed to calibrate its firepower to handle a level of resistance which intelligence services completely failed to foresee.
May 10, 2022
This article asks – Did Russia’s General Staff Miss Warnings of a Hard Campaign in Ukraine?:
The existence of warnings from former high-ranking military officers prior to the invasion draws into question the idea that Russian generals had not considered the prospect of the operation turning difficult.
Myth has always played a role in the development of war narratives, stemming from confusion and chaos on the battlefield, the sparsity of reliable sources and – in many cases – deliberate efforts to mislead ..snip.. In Russia’s war against Ukraine ordered by President Vladimir Putin on 24 February 2022, an imperceptible myth has developed surrounding the political-military underestimation of the level of resistance to the invasion by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, appearing in various forms in an effort to ‘explain’ the poor performance of the Russian military.
This is predicated upon the assertion that in the pre-war operational planning by Russia’s General Staff, an assumption was made or forced upon them that the war would result in rapid victory: Russian soldiers would be welcomed with flowers, bread and salt. In short, the war would be easy and relatively brief ..snip.. Did the General Staff ignore or miss pre-war warnings that the conflict would be far from easy?
SNIP .. Yet, this failure to understand such foreseeable consequences lies in Putin’s miscalculation of the risks involved and the parameters required for adequate operational design. Putin’s flawed decision-making likely resulted not only from badly crafted intelligence – especially from the FSB – but also from his largely successful previous experience of using military force. This predisposed him to underestimate the military of a country lacking – in his view – legitimate statehood or nationhood, and was further compounded by his failure to recognise that the war in Ukraine would be fought on a scale way beyond his experience – or that of his senior generals.
Catastrophic mistakes by a nation’s leader! Putin exposed to the entire World how weak the Russian Military actually is, and he did so without even realizing it himself. A Treasonous offense by any nation’s leader, IMHO.
Mikhail Khodaryonok (RUS military journalist) wrote some very interesting articles before Putin’s foolish reinvasion of Ukraine. It seemed that many Russians knew how weak Russia actually was even before Putin’s reinvasion, which reflects on Putin’s poor leadership ‘n the selection of cronies he surrounded himself wid.
December 16, 2021
Attempts to realize fantasies will only lead to wars
Russia will expand its territory by gathering lands and spaces, since constant expansion is not just one of the ideas, but the true existential of our historical existence. This opinion is expressed by individual representatives of the political class of the country.
In their opinion, for centuries the Russian state, with its harsh and inactive political interior, was preserved solely due to the relentless striving beyond its own borders. It has long forgotten how, and most likely never knew how to survive in other ways.
External expansion, Russian thinkers believe, serves to defuse the internal tension that accumulates in society and which in no case should be released into the wild through liberal experiments.
(Russia had been using “External expansion” methods long before Hitler came up wid – LEBENSRAUM: The concept of Lebensraum—or “living space”—served as a critical component in the Nazi worldview that drove both its military conquests and racial policy.)
SNIP .. We continue to move from the right flank to the left and move on to the South-Western strategic direction. The expansion towards Ukraine will definitely lead to a large-scale and bloody regional war between Moscow and Kiev, as well as the most severe (“hellish”, as the political leaders of the EU and NATO say) sanctions from the collective West.
Against this background, the geopolitical dreams and fantasies of domestic political scientists about “expansions” and “spheres of influence” do not look very convincing. Whether we like it or not, this rhetoric will have to be brought into line with the table of the real balance of forces and means, and at this stage it is not at all in favor of Moscow. The Kremlin today does not have real financial, economic, and even military levers capable of radically influencing the situation and leading it to at least some reformatting.
Again, that article was written in December 16, 2021. Putin ‘n his cronies ignored it, and moved on wid their Nazi like invasion of Ukraine.
February 3, 2022
About enthusiastic hawks and hasty cuckoos
Some representatives of the Russian political class today argue that Russia is able to inflict a crushing defeat on Ukraine in a few hours (and shorter periods are also mentioned) if a military conflict breaks out. Let’s see how such statements correspond to reality.
In the expert community of Russia, the opinion has recently taken root quite strongly that it will not even be necessary to send troops to the territory of Ukraine, since the Armed Forces of this country are in a deplorable state.
(The “expert community” needs to be all gathered up ‘n sent to the frontlines in Ukraine, huh. Over a 100,000+++ Russian troops have died in less than a year. For a comparison, about 15,000 Soviet soldiers were killed in Afghanistan during that 10-year War. Will the Russian people let Putin kill 1,000,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine?)
SNIP .. As a cherry on the cake, some analysts emphasize the fact that no one in Ukraine will defend the “Kiev regime”.
NO EASY WALK
Let’s start with the last one. To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means, in practice, complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the mood of the broad masses of the people in the neighboring state. Moreover, the degree of hatred (which, as you know, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic in relation to Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.
A year after Colonel-General Ivashov’s warnings, he is speaking up again…
February 14, 2023
Vladimir Putin is leading Russia to defeat and humiliation in Ukraine, according to one of Moscow’s most respected military figures, who also blames the President for uniting the West with his disastrous invasion.
Retired army colonel-general Leonid Ivashov had called for the president’s resignation a year ago before the war started over a ‘criminal’ policy in ‘provoking’ an ‘artificial’ conflict, foreseeing it would trigger disaster.
Now he says the carnage across the border is worse than he imagined.
SNIP .. ‘Further, I wrote that we would find ourselves a pariah state, but, frankly, I did not think that we would not have a single ally that has serious influence on the political, economic or military-technical level.’
Ivashov blames Putin for triggering a new alignment between the US and China, and expects this to bear fruit with the pair holding the major sway in the world.
SNIP .. Putin’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine had ‘saved NATO‘ with Finland and Sweden due to join, he continued. ‘We have delivered the whole of Europe into the hands of the Americans…’ due to Putin’s ineptness.
‘There was no Collective West before, there were a lot of contradictions there. And today we are creating this Collective West with our own hands.’
Ivashov said Putin blundered by not properly seeking other solutions in Donetsk and Luhansk, before launching his invasion.
SNIP .. Russia is paying the price for the Putin era’s demoting of military professions and instead bringing in secret services cronies and even alcohol and furniture experts to key military positions,’ the retired general said.
‘To go to war with such an army is more than a crime,’ he said.
SNIP .. Using intellect is the way to victory, Ivashov said.
‘In our country, instead of intellect, people are twisting their arms, intimidating, imprisoning. In such a situation, the country always loses and does not live long.
This is what happens when a country’s people give up their rights ‘n empower their Government over the individual’s rights.
February 14, 2023
Colonel-General Ivashov predicted such, a year ago.
February 14, 2023
2/14/2023 was a bad day for Putin, huh.
A paranoid Vladimir Putin is now travelling in a specially-made armoured train instead of his usual Flying Kremlin plane.
The Russian leader has taken to the railways as he is reportedly scared of being tracked and shot out of the sky when flying in his presidential plane.
He should be paranoid…*VERY* paranoid!!! However, trains may not be as safe as he ‘tHiNkS‘, i.e., Ukraine has a special unit tracking those trains ‘n ‘Paper Bear‘ Putin already. Rumor has it, they are not there to kill him, but to capture him. Headed to The Hague???