Bottom Line Up Front: Reporting from our remote Florida Swamp news desk – it’s déjà vu all over again. Trump’s peddling the same “security assurances” that screwed Ukraine in 1994 with the Budapest Memorandum.
Ukraine gave up the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal for American “security assurances” – worthless promises that evaporated when Putin invaded. Now Trump’s coordinating with Putin while offering Ukraine new “security assurances” as part of his Nobel Peace Prize lust. Same diplomatic double-talk, same escape clauses, same setup for betrayal.
Ukraine’s been down this road before and got abandoned. Here’s the documented pattern of how “security assurances” became American code for “we’ll bail when convenient.”
Karmi: Here’s our Digital Reporter Claude with the full breakdown…
Digital Reporter Claude: The phrase “security assurances” should trigger immediate alarm bells for anyone who remembers how Ukraine got screwed in 1994. The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances promised Ukraine protection in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons, and those assurances proved worthless when Putin invaded Crimea in 2014 and launched his full-scale war in 2022.
Now Trump’s offering Ukraine new “security assurances” while coordinating with Putin during peace negotiations. The pattern is identical: fancy promises designed with built-in escape clauses, coordinated with Russia’s approval, while Ukraine faces pressure to give up territory. It’s déjà vu all over again, and Ukraine’s already been down this road.
The Budapest Memorandum’s Security Assurances: Ukraine’s Nuclear Arsenal for Empty Promises
What Ukraine Gave Up in 1994
The Arms Control Association documents: “At the time of Ukraine’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine held the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world, including an estimated 1,900 strategic warheads, 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and 44 strategic bombers.” This wasn’t theoretical deterrence; it was massive firepower that could have kept Russia at bay.
Pure Evidence – Budapest Memorandum Provided Security Assurances to Ukraine:
- Wikipedia: “The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances comprises four substantially identical political agreements signed at the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE) in Budapest, Hungary, on 5 December 1994, to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine”
- Harvard Kennedy School: “On December 5, 1994, leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Russian Federation met in Budapest, Hungary, to pledge security assurances to Ukraine in connection with its accession to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapons state.”
- Stanford University: “December 5 marks the 30th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum of Security Assurances for Ukraine, a key part of the settlement under which Ukraine gave up what was then the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal.”
- West Point Lieber Institute: “Last month of 2024 marked the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Budapest Memorandum, part of an agreement by which Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in return for security assurances by Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom.”
The Trilateral Statement: America’s Pre-Budapest Security Assurances Promise
“As the United States mediated between Russia and Ukraine, the three countries signed the Trilateral Statement on January 14, 1994. Ukraine committed to full disarmament, including strategic weapons, in exchange for economic support and security assurances from the United States and Russia.”
The Massandra Accords were a failed 1993 summit between Russia and Ukraine, but they established the framework for what became America’s promise of security assurances. The Atomic Archive confirms: “On December 5, 1994, Ukraine acceded to the Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear weapon state. On that same date, the US, Russia and United Kingdom provided security assurances to Ukraine” – proving America promised Ukraine security assurances twice: first in the Trilateral Statement, then in the Budapest Memorandum.
The Semantic Scam: “Assurances” vs “Guarantees”
The West Point Lieber Institute explains the deliberate ambiguity: “U.S. State Department officials insisted on using the term ‘assurances’ instead of ‘guarantees’ to describe the security commitments. Although Ukraine initially framed its request as seeking security ‘guarantees,’ the United States wished to avoid this term as it ‘implied a deeper, even legally-binding commitment.'”
How Those Security Assurances Failed Ukraine
When Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum by annexing Crimea in 2014, the Wikipedia entry documents: “As a response, the US and the UK provided Ukraine with financial and military assistance and imposed economic sanctions on Russia, while ruling out ‘any direct interventions to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia’.”
The security assurances proved worthless when tested. The same Wikipedia source notes: “On 19 February 2022, at the Munich Security Conference, Zelenskyy said: ‘Since 2014, Ukraine has tried three times to convene consultations with the guarantor states of the Budapest Memorandum [i.e. United States and United Kingdom]. Three times without success.'”
The MAGA Blindness Problem
MAGA sites like The New Neo are cheerleading this Trump-Putin theater without asking the hard questions about what’s really happening. That’s exactly the problem—MAGA loyalists can’t see the warning signs, and even if they could, they’d probably explain it away somehow.
Trump’s Current Security Assurances: Same Pattern, New Players
Trump’s Real-Time Coordination Call With Putin
While Ukraine’s future was being decided at the White House on August 18, 2025, Trump coordinated directly with Putin in a phone call that interrupted the proceedings:
- Pravda reports Kremlin aide confirmation: “Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump held a phone call that lasted about 40 minutes” and “Donald Trump called Vladimir Putin right during talks with Zelensky and EU leaders”
- Washington Post reports: “President Donald Trump said he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin after meeting with European and NATO leaders”
- Reuters: “Trump interrupts talks with European leaders to call Putin”
This wasn’t diplomacy – this was coordination happening in real time while Ukraine’s fate was being decided with European leaders waiting in the hallway.
The New “Security Assurances” Offer
Trump’s offering Ukraine the same type of worthless promises that failed in 1994. The administration proposes security arrangements that avoid the binding commitments of NATO Article 5, just like the Budapest Memorandum’s deliberately weak language.
Why Putin Agrees to Trump’s “Security Assurances”
Putin knows these assurances are worthless – just like the Budapest Memorandum. That’s why Russia doesn’t object to Trump’s proposed security arrangements for Ukraine. They’ve seen this movie before, and they know how it ends: with Ukraine abandoned when convenient.
Digital Reporter Claude: That’s the breakdown on Trump’s security assurances déjà vu – same failed promises, same coordination with Putin, same setup for Ukrainian betrayal. Back to you, Karmi.
Karmi: Great job on that reporting, Claude. Now here’s my take on this whole mess…
Outro
The Same Scam, New Package
As we documented in our analysis of Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize lust, this is all about Trump’s ego and his desperate desire for that peace prize. He’s willing to coordinate with Putin and offer Ukraine the same failed “security assurances” that screwed them in 1994.
Ukraine learned the hard way that American “security assurances” are diplomatic code for “we’ll bail when convenient.” Now Trump’s peddling the same worthless promises while coordinating with the very dictator who violated the last set of assurances.
It’s déjà vu all over again – and Ukraine shouldn’t fall for it twice.