Grok – \u201cwhat are Zohran Mamdani chances of winning in NYC November mayors race?\u201d:<\/p>\n
Zohran Mamdani is the frontrunner in the New York City mayoral race for November 4, 2025, following his victory in the Democratic primary on June 24, 2025. According to a Polymarket betting analysis on June 25, 2025, Mamdani had a 73.6% chance of winning the general election, compared to 19.4% for incumbent Mayor Eric Adams (running as an independent) and 4.9% for Andrew Cuomo (who may run as an independent). New York City\u2019s heavily Democratic electorate, with a 6-to-1 Democratic-to-Republican voter ratio, strongly favors Mamdani as the Democratic nominee. His primary win, where he secured 43.5% of first-choice votes against Cuomo\u2019s 36.4% with 93% of precincts reporting, demonstrates significant voter support, particularly among young, white, Asian, and Latino voters in Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Queens.<\/p>\n
Given New York\u2019s Democratic dominance and Mamdani\u2019s primary performance, his chances of winning are high, likely above 70%, barring significant shifts in the general election dynamics.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
I went with the betting markets over traditional polls in the Trump\/Harris race and they were correct. Example from Grok – \u201cwere betting markets right about winning presidential candidate in 2024?\u201d:<\/p>\n
Yes, betting markets correctly predicted Donald Trump as the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt consistently showed Trump leading Kamala Harris in the weeks before the election, with Polymarket giving Trump a 66% chance of victory as of October 30, 2024, and odds around 60% on Election Day. These markets reacted quickly to events like debates and campaign developments, outperforming traditional polls, which often showed a tighter race or Harris slightly ahead (e.g., FiveThirtyEight\u2019s 55% for Harris). On election night, betting markets called Trump\u2019s win hours before major news outlets, with probabilities exceeding 98% by 1:30 AM.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Conclusion<\/p>\n
I\u2019m sticking with the betting markets on Zohran Mamdani…still early but looks like a Mamdani win.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Zohran Mamdani appears to have won the New York City Democratic Mayoral Primary, pending ranked-choice voting tabulation expected by July 1. Mamdani\u2019s lead is considered substantial. Right-wing news outlets and blogosphere are upset, with some claiming, \u201cAmerica was founded on Judeo-Christian principles.\u201d One blog commenter responded to me, stating: Islam is incompatible with western civilization. … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[162,51,231,245,89,173,194,239,57,238,175,66,172,69],"tags":[248,55],"class_list":["post-6135","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deep-state","category-woke","category-big-govt","category-2026-midterms","category-abortion","category-abrahamic-religions","category-antisemitism","category-artificial-intelligence-ai","category-democratic-party","category-grok","category-islam","category-progressivism","category-religions","category-totalitarianism","tag-elections","tag-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6135","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6135"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6135\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6143,"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6135\/revisions\/6143"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6135"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6135"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6135"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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