{"id":5797,"date":"2025-03-19T19:29:04","date_gmt":"2025-03-19T23:29:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/?p=5797"},"modified":"2025-08-12T14:35:04","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T18:35:04","slug":"trapped-priors-bayes-theorem-political-blogs-vs-tds-tcs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/19\/trapped-priors-bayes-theorem-political-blogs-vs-tds-tcs\/","title":{"rendered":"Trapped Priors, Bayes&#8217; theorem, Political Blogs vs. TDS &#038; TCS"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5799 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Trapped-Priors.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"366\" srcset=\"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Trapped-Priors.jpg 700w, https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Trapped-Priors-500x261.jpg 500w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>As I noted in an earlier <a href=\"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/06\/democrats-republicans-two-peas-in-the-same-pod\/\"><b>Post<\/b><\/a>, I\u2019ve come to see the Democratic and Republican parties as a \u201csimilar pair.\u201d For over a year, I\u2019ve been closely following political news articles and blogs, paying equal attention to their comment sections. This isn\u2019t my first dive into their similarities, but over the past 4-6 months, this exploration has left me puzzled: why can\u2019t two such apparent political foes see their own parallels\u2014especially in the ways they criticize each other?!<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/19\/trapped-priors-bayes-theorem-political-blogs-vs-tds-tcs\/#%E2%80%98Good_or_bad_our_feelings_color_how_we_see_people\" >\u2018Good or bad, our feelings color how we see people\u2019<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/19\/trapped-priors-bayes-theorem-political-blogs-vs-tds-tcs\/#Trapped_Priors\" >Trapped Priors<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/19\/trapped-priors-bayes-theorem-political-blogs-vs-tds-tcs\/#Conclusion\" >Conclusion<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%98Good_or_bad_our_feelings_color_how_we_see_people\"><\/span>\u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nirandfar.com\/trapped-priors-and-your-relationships\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><i>Good or bad, our feelings color how we see people<\/i><\/a>\u2019<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>I occasionally use The New Neo blog as my Muse \ud83d\ude01 \u2013 this post caught my eye today: \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/thenewneo.com\/2025\/03\/19\/the-enormous-value-of-lies-as-propaganda\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>The enormous value of lies as propaganda<\/b><\/a>\u201d. Commenter Niketas Choniates on March 19, 2025 at 1:36 pm brings up Trapped Priors in neo\u2019s post. The New Neo blog often drifts to posts or comments about old friends who caught the TDS virus and never recovered [SARC]. I may have been the first to coin the term \u2013 TCS (Trump Cultist Syndrome). Left-wing blogs reject both TDS and TCS terms, while many right-wing comment sections will attack you for using such negative MAGA terms.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Trapped_Priors\"><\/span>Trapped Priors<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Several explanations on the term:<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 <b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.astralcodexten.com\/p\/trapped-priors-as-a-basic-problem\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality<\/a> \u2013 <\/b>Niketas Choniates linked in comment.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 <strong>Google AI Overview<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>In the context of psychology and rationality, &#8220;trapped priors&#8221; refer to strong, deeply ingrained beliefs or perceptions that are resistant to change, even in the face of new evidence or experiences. These priors can lead to biased thinking and difficulty in updating one&#8217;s understanding of the world.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u2022 <strong>Grok 3 take<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Trapped priors&#8221; is a fascinating concept that highlights a key challenge in human reasoning and rationality. It describes those stubborn, deeply held beliefs\u2014our &#8220;priors&#8221; in Bayesian terms\u2014that we cling to, even when confronted with evidence that should prompt us to rethink them. The term comes up in discussions of psychology and epistemology, where it\u2019s seen as a barrier to updating our mental models of reality.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I\u2019m not going to delve into Bayesian terms or Bayes&#8217; theorem, as Trapped Priors seems to address my questions about the Democratic and Republican parties being a \u201csimilar pair\u201d in their \u201cbiased thinking.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"><\/span>Conclusion<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Trapped Priors also explains why \u201cintelligent\u201d old friends would lie or believe such, or why one would attempt to \u2018eDiT\u2019 a video by creating their own \u201ctranscript\u201d of the desired version. <a href=\"https:\/\/thenewneo.com\/2025\/03\/01\/more-on-yesterdays-zelensky-trump-vance-blowup-what-about-europe\/#comment-2790688\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Example<\/b><\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>T: [nods] They gave a lot, but they gave much less.<\/p>\n<p>Z: No, no!<\/p>\n<p>T: Don\u2019t argue. [Trump smiles, leans in, gives Zelensky little pat]<\/p>\n<p>Z: No, no! [said this time in a sort of whiney-jokey way, with a slight smile]<\/p>\n<p>T: Much less.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As I noted in an earlier Post, I\u2019ve come to see the Democratic and Republican parties as a \u201csimilar pair.\u201d For over a year, I\u2019ve been closely following political news articles and blogs, paying equal attention to their comment sections. This isn\u2019t my first dive into their similarities, but over the past 4-6 months, this &#8230; <a title=\"Trapped Priors, Bayes&#8217; theorem, Political Blogs vs. TDS &#038; TCS\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/19\/trapped-priors-bayes-theorem-political-blogs-vs-tds-tcs\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Trapped Priors, Bayes&#8217; theorem, Political Blogs vs. TDS &#038; TCS\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":2,"footnotes":""},"categories":[162,231,57,106,105],"tags":[55],"class_list":["post-5797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deep-state","category-big-govt","category-democratic-party","category-republican-party","category-trump","tag-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5797","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5797"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5797\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5806,"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5797\/revisions\/5806"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5797"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5797"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmismusingstech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5797"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}